For a few tense weeks, asteroid 2024 YR4 had astronomers watching the skies a little more closely. With an estimated size between 40 and 90 meters and a peak 3.1% chance of hitting Earth, it briefly held the second-highest impact probability of any known asteroid. If it had struck a populated area, the results could have been devastating. Fortunately, thanks to rapid observations from telescopes worldwide, scientists have refined its path—Earth is officially safe. But the Moon? That’s another story.

While 2024 YR4’s Earth impact probability has dropped to nearly zero, its odds of hitting the Moon have quietly increased from 0.3% to as high as 2%. MIT asteroid expert Richard Binzel put it best: “We are all rooting for the Moon!” Unlike an Earth impact, a lunar collision would be a rare scientific opportunity. A direct hit would let scientists study the asteroid’s composition as it’s pulverized and scattered, while also revealing deeper layers of the Moon’s crust.

Mark Boslough of the University of New Mexico estimates that if the asteroid does strike on December 22, 2032, it could leave a crater anywhere from 400 meters to 1.8 kilometers across—potentially larger than Arizona’s Meteor Crater. That would be a major new lunar landmark, perfect for future astronauts to visit (or avoid).

The odds are still low, but even if 2024 YR4 misses, it has already provided valuable lessons in asteroid tracking. With new observatories coming online soon, discoveries like this will only become more common. For now, Earth can breathe easy. As for the Moon? It may want to keep an eye on the sky.

[Via skyandtelescope.org]

Picture generated via SD.